Currently, Boeing depends on a commitment from Volga-Dnepr Airlines to take delivery of 20 airframes. The order loss [following Transaero’s bankruptcy] does not weaken the bullish case for Boeing, but does make an already vulnerable program even more vulnerable.
This article will look at where the program stands now and how AirBridgeCargo’s fleet expansion will affect the outlook for the Boeing 747-8 program.
Orders and Deliveries
To get an idea about the current state of the program it is important to look at the orders and deliveries:
In total there are only 13 aircraft in backlog, almost split equally between the passenger and freighter variant.
Boeing has been waiting for growth on the cargo market to return to the historical 5% annual rate for order inflow for the freighter model to materialize, but while the jet maker kept delivering aircraft recovery of the market was slower than expected. This forced Boeing to cut back rates eventually, but it might have done this too late.
Currently Boeing produces 1.3 Boeing 747s per month, effective March 2016 the production rate will be reduced to 1 per month. This means that it will produce 12-13 aircraft in 2016 or in other words: Boeing will run out of backlog at the end of the year.
One of the things that marks weak demand for the superjumbo is the number of white tails, aircraft that have been rejected by the customer or aircraft of which the customer was not able to take delivery.
Continues at… Russian Commitment May Not Save Boeing 747